Public School Student Enrollment of Northern Virginia Overview
With population growth in the Northern Virginia region has come substantial student enrollment growth in the region's public elementary, middle, and high schools since 2004. On September 30, 2004, there were 315,898 public school students in the region. By September 30, 2019 student enrollment had increased to 423,670. In 2020 the COVID-19 pandemic hit the world. Fall student enrollments have been a different story due to the impacts and transformations caused by the COVID-19. Prior to the pandemic, in 2019 students were 16.7% of the total population. In 2023, the latest year with population available, students were 16.1% of the total population.
COVID-19 Pandemic Impact
-
Fall 2020: School enrollment dropped in the region for the first time since at least 2003, with a drop of 16,413.
-
Fall 2021: Enrollment dropped slightly further by fall 2021, with a drop of 626 from 2020.
-
Insights: The enrollment decline during the pandemic was largely attributable to public school students transferring to at-home schooling and private schools, as well as the overall decline in the region's population from mid-2020 to mid-2021.
Slow Recovery from COVID-19 Pandemic
-
Fall 2022: Students that were home-school or attended private school during the peak of COVID-19 started to return to public schools and a Northern Virginia population rebound was underway. The 2022 fall enrollment was 4,081 higher than the prior year.
-
Fall 2023/2024: Enrollment in Fall 2024 was 411,097, which lags pre-pandemic enrollment by 12,573 or 3.0%. Fall 2023 enrollment was only 617 students higher than in 2022. Fall 2024 enrollment declined by 232 students from the previous year.
-
Regional Insights: In 2020 and 2021, students were 16.0% of the total population. This increased slightly to 16.1% in 2022 and stayed at that level in 2023, falling short of the pre-pandemic share of 16.7%. The population estimate for 2024 is unavailable until mid-2024. The slow recovery is mirrors the region's slow population rebound. The lower shares observed since 2019 are likely a result of the enhanced appeal of at-home and private schooling following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The slow growth can also be attributed to declining birth rates in Northern Virginia.
-
County/City Insights: The only jurisdictions surpassing the 2019 pre-pandemic enrollment level as of 2024 were the City of Alexandria and the City of Falls Church. Alexandria's enrollment was 16,613 in 2024 compared to 16,307 in 2019. Alexandria's 2024 enrollment was the highest enrollment on record since 1971. Falls Church's enrollment was 2,677 compared to 2,649 in 2019. Alexandria and Falls Church surpassed 2019 pre-pandemic enrollment levels for the first time in 2023 and 2024 respectively.
Future Growth and Planning
The Washington region is forecasted to have much population growth in the next few decades, according to the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (MWCOG). A significant amount of that growth is forecasted to be in Northern Virginia.
The Northern Virginia region had a population of over 2.54 million in 2022 and is forecasted to be more than 3 million by 2040. See the NVRC Demographic and Economic Fact Sheet for more details.
A multitude of variables alter student enrollment trends, including new development, transfers to and from private schools, in and out migration rates, and changing size and composition of families in existing housing stock. With growth comes challenges in maintaining the high quality of education and school facilities in the region. To maintain the high quality of education, planning and acquiring land or buildings for school sites to accommodate future growth is vitally important, but has been increasingly challenging in this region with quickly diminishing land supply.